Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that continued disinflation could push 30-year mortgage rates below 5% by late 2026, potentially unleashing pent-up housing demand from millions of sidelined buyers.

The Path to 5%

Two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each, combined with moderating inflation expectations, could push the 10-year Treasury yield to 3.5% — typically translating to mortgage rates around 4.8-5.0%.

Housing Market Implications

Economists warn that sub-5% rates could trigger a buying frenzy given current inventory constraints, potentially reigniting bidding wars in competitive markets.