Leading housing economists are projecting home price appreciation of just 2-3% nationally for the remainder of 2026, a significant moderation from the double-digit gains of recent years. The cooling is welcomed by affordability advocates but concerns some homeowners.
The moderation is driven by gradually improving inventory levels, with active listings up 20% year-over-year nationally. New construction continues at the fastest pace in 15 years, adding supply in markets where demand has been strongest.
The "lock-in" effect — where homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates refuse to sell — is slowly fading as rates decline and life circumstances change. Approximately 3% of locked-in homeowners list their homes for each half-point decline in mortgage rates.
Regional variations remain stark. Markets with strong job growth and limited buildable land (Miami, Nashville, Charlotte) continue to see 5-7% appreciation. Markets with technology sector weakness or previous overbuilding (San Francisco, Austin, Boise) are flat or slightly negative.
For buyers, the moderating market offers improved negotiating conditions. Bidding wars have declined significantly, contingencies are returning to offers, and homes are staying on market longer, giving buyers time for thorough due diligence.
