Home prices have defied gravity for years, but cracks are forming. Here's what the leading forecasters predict for the rest of 2026.
Forecasts
- Zillow: +2.5% nationally (slowing from 4.5% in 2025)
- Redfin: +1.8% with select markets declining
- CoreLogic: +3.0% (affordability limits reducing demand)
- Goldman Sachs: +2.0% nationally, -5% in overheated Sun Belt markets
Markets Most Likely to Decline
Austin (-8% already from peak), Phoenix (-5%), Boise (-6%), and parts of Florida where insurance costs are making ownership unaffordable. These markets saw 30-50% price surges during the pandemic boom.
Markets Still Rising
Northeast cities (NYC, Boston, Hartford) with limited supply and strong job markets. Midwest cities (Columbus, Indianapolis) with affordable bases and growing populations.
The Lock-In Effect
65% of mortgage holders have rates below 4%. They won't sell unless they must, constraining supply. This "golden handcuffs" effect keeps inventory low and supports prices even as demand softens.
