Zillow's latest Home Value Index shows national home prices essentially flat year-over-year, rising just 0.8% — the slowest appreciation rate since 2012. However, the national figure masks dramatic regional differences, with some markets booming while others decline.
The strongest markets remain in the Southeast and Mountain West, with cities like Nashville (+8%), Jacksonville (+7%), and Boise (+6%) seeing robust appreciation. The weakest markets include San Francisco (-5%), Portland (-4%), and Austin (-3%), where previous overheating is correcting.
The divergence reflects differences in local economies, migration patterns, and housing supply. Markets with strong job growth, net in-migration, and limited inventory continue to appreciate, while those with tech sector weakness or recent overbuilding are softening.
For homeowners, the flat national market means equity growth has essentially stalled for the first time in over a decade. However, with most homeowners holding mortgages at rates well below current levels, the incentive to sell remains low, supporting price floors.
Looking ahead, Zillow forecasts modest 2-3% national appreciation in the next 12 months, with continued divergence between strong and weak markets. The forecast assumes mortgage rates stabilize near current levels and no significant economic downturn occurs.
